Eli Knight
This is my third time writing this article, and it gets harder each year to single out just 5 contenders for the crown. I suppose that is good for the league as a whole, because this year the playoffs feel wide open with several postseason mainstays watching from home. Each of the past 2 Super Bowl Winners has been one of the 5 teams I selected, but as I mentioned before, this year it seems especially hard to narrow down the field. I even decided to make a "just missed out" field for those teams that were axed from the list at the last minute. I suppose all of this is meant to say: stay with me here, as I had to make some tough cuts.
The Five:
Seattle Seahawks (14-3); NFC #1 seed
After signing Sam Darnold this past offseason, many - including myself - had their doubts about the team's chances of success. Low and behold, they finished this year with the most wins in franchise history. I'm still not entirely sold on Darnold, given his previous playoff experience, but there is no denying the talent that this Seattle team has. They have a well balanced offense with a two headed monster in the backfield, two high quality receivers, and a quarterback who knows how to use his weapons behind a strong offensive line. The offense alone would be sufficient, but they are paired with a defense that has allowed the least points per game in the league this year. In nearly every defensive category, they rank at or near the top of the league.
On paper, Seattle is the best all around team. They navigated the toughest division in the NFL with a second year head coach and came out unscathed. The only potential problem I see is their youth and inexperience coming back to bite them. Many of the best players on this roster are headed into uncharted territory, and the NFC picture isn't exactly smooth sledding. They could possibly play 2 divisional rivals en route to the Super Bowl that have learned over the past 18 weeks how to play them, but they proved in the regular season that they can handle the toughest of opponents, so it's just a matter of whether the team can carry their play over when it really matters.
Philadelphia Eagles (11-6); NFC #3 Seed
The Eagles are now the only team to make my list in each of the three years I've published it, and for good reason. After a midseason rough patch, morale was down in Philly, but the team followed it up with 3 straight wins to clinch the NFC East crown for a second consecutive year. They have some of the best playmakers in the league with a quarterback who meshes well with both them and his above average offensive line, even if its play is down from years past. The concern is the coaching staff. Offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo is yet to hit his stride as a play caller, and that is reflected in the offensive numbers, which are significantly worse than the past couple of seasons.
Even with an abnormally down offensive season, Vic Fangio's defense has been able to pick up the slack. GM Howie Roseman's many early round investments and high quality trades have clearly paid off, as they have been left with a young core with nothing to do but grow. Along with their recent selections, they have seasoned veterans in Brandon Graham and Zack Baun who have kept the team steady.
Philadelphia's main advantage over a team like the Seahawks is their postseason experience, held by just about every player on the team thanks to their playoff success last year. They face a tough path, like any NFC team, and will play another experienced roster in the first round at home against the San Francisco 49ers. Philly will surely be tested in every round, but I have faith in their proven talent and we could very well be in line for a successful title defense.
Los Angeles Rams (12-5); NFC #5 Seed
Despite trailing off near the end of the season, the Rams had another successful year under Sean McVay. Matthew Stafford is well in the running for MVP, and he is surrounded by offensive threats. Puka Nacua continued his reign of terror against opposing defenses that he started immediately upon entering the league, and the arrival of Davante Adams largely filled the Cooper Kupp void and added a major boost in the red zone, reeling in a league-leading 14 touchdowns. Kyren Williams will once again handle a bulk of the running game reps with Blake Corum injured, which may hinder them slightly, but the team was used to rolling with Williams alone before this year.
They will face the 8-9 Panthers in the first round, which may look easy at face value, but Carolina got the best of the Rams when they met in late November. They are a streaky team, and the Rams are sure to be heavy favorites, but I wouldn't count it as a win just yet. The LA defense has faltered a bit down the stretch, but the talent is still there and they've shown for stretches this year that they can contain playoff-level offenses. If the Rams can find their path back to the clean, turnover-free football that we saw for the majority of the season, then there is not many teams who can stop them.
Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4); AFC #3 Seed
I reworked this list for roughly an hour before deciding on my final five, and the Jaguars didn't make any version except for the last. As I looked back at their schedule, I couldn't get past their recent surge. Under first year head coach Liam Coen, QB Trevor Lawrence finally showed that he could live up to his draft expectations, and team success followed. His college teammate, Travis Etienne, also had a career year in the absence of Tank Bigsby, and a deadline move to acquire Jakobi Meyers from the Raiders paid off, as evidenced by the three year extension he signed shortly after the trade. Behind one of the top ranked offensive lines in the league, Lawrence had plenty of time to find Meyers, as well as receivers Brian Thomas Jr. and Parker Washington, both of whom benefited greatly from the aforementioned trade.
Even without 2nd overall pick Travis Hunter, the defense held up well enough to keep them in games. It is not quite as star studded as some others in the playoffs, but I would not call it a liability. The path will be tough, but the Jags played a challenging schedule and proved time and time again that they were up to the task. They arguably have the most momentum in the league, an intangible that cannot be underestimated heading in to the postseason. There is no major skill divide between these AFC teams, and in games that could come down to grit and determination, I trust Jacksonville.
Buffalo Bills (12-5); AFC #6 Seed
The Bills lost the AFC East for the first time since 2019 this year after an inconsistent regular season, but I can't bet against Josh Allen in his first playoffs without Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrow. It is no secret that he has struggled in his previous experience in the postseason, but with his usual competition out of the picture, all eyes are on Allen. The receiving core since the Stefon Diggs trade is one of the worst across the NFL, but they've made it work. The running game made up for it and finished as the best in the league, with James Cook and Ty Johnson handling the bulk of the duties, and Allen supplementing it at the quarterback position, both scrambling and on designed runs.
The defense is adequate, but like the rest of the team, has fluctuated from game to game. They will face Jacksonville in the first round, which, as we have outlined, is not easy. Buffalo is easily capable of winning each game, though, it is just a matter of putting it all together. Head Coach Sean McDermott has struggled in the playoffs, much like Allen. He has had no problem in the regular season beating playoff teams, but for whatever reason the play cannot click in the postseason. This year, they were able to beat some of the top teams in the AFC, and I trust this team's playoff experience when it is all said and done. Not necessarily the success they have had, but the fact that they have played together in games where everything is on the line more than any other AFC team.
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